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Monday’s Top Betting Pick: Sevilla v Celta Prediction

January 12, 2026

After hitting a couple of winners yesterday, we are looking to keep the momentum going with Monday’s top betting pick on the most accurate Sevilla v Celta prediction. Two teams in contrasting forms will close down the curtain on La Liga’s 19th round, which marks the halfway of the season. Sevilla are closer to the relegation zone than to the European spots. Celta have quietly build up momentum and are currently 7th with 26 points and firmly in contention for the Europa League or Conference League positions.

Check our other top betting pick for today and form a winning parlay with our Juventus v Cremonese prediction.

Current Form & Momentum

Sevilla come into this match under significant pressure. Their recent run has been defined by inconsistency, defensive fragility, and a worrying lack of goals. Sevilla have scored 24 goals in 18 matches, and have conceded 29 goals. That makes up for a negative goal difference of -5. They’ve struggled to convert possession into meaningful chances, and their xG numbers have dipped sharply over the last month. At home, they remain competitive, but the Sánchez‑Pizjuán no longer feels like the fortress it once was.

Nevertheless, I watched closely one of their last matches – the 2:0 defeat to Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. Fact is, the scoreline does not tell the whole story. The match was actually very competitive and Sevilla had the better chances in the first half. Marcao got a second yellow and was sent off in the 66th minute. The visitors still managed to get some great shots on goal. Alexis Sanchez had a vintage performance running like crazy and tormenting Los Blancos’ defense. Curtois had to make a splendid safe on a long distance shot from Sanchez. At the end, Real got their usual penalty, which Mbape converted and the game ended 2:0. However, Sevilla had loads of chances and should have scored.

The real shock game in the next game as Sevilla lost at home to Levante by 0:3. Romero missed a penalty in the 92th minute, and then Levante put the hammer down and scored the third deep into stoppage time.

Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have quietly built momentum. Their performances have improved dramatically, especially in transition and chance creation. They’ve been more efficient in front of goal, and their underlying metrics—particularly xG and xPTS—suggest a team trending upward. For bettors evaluating La Liga betting picks, Celta’s recent form is a key factor.

Team News & Player Availability

Sevilla’s squad issues continue to mount. Several first‑team defenders and wide players remain unavailable, forcing the manager into constant reshuffling. The absence of natural full‑backs has hurt their buildup play and defensive balance, while the lack of a consistent striker has made goals hard to come by. These absences directly influence any Sevilla v Celta prediction, as the hosts simply aren’t fielding their strongest XI.

The current injury list for Sevilla features: Alfonso Gonzales (muscle injury), Gabriel Suazo (muscle injury), Tanguy Nianzou (hamstring strain), César Azpilicueta (thigh injury). Both Chidera Ejuke and Akor Adams miss out due to their AFCON involvement.

Celta, on the other hand, are missing a couple of defenders but retain their full attacking unit. With Iago Aspas orchestrating play and Borja Iglesias in strong scoring form, they pose a real threat—especially against a Sevilla side that has conceded early in several recent matches.

Tactical Breakdown

Sevilla will likely attempt to control possession, but their structural issues make them vulnerable to counterattacks. Their midfield can be overrun when stretched, and Celta’s vertical passing style is perfectly suited to exploit those gaps.

Celta’s approach is more pragmatic but highly effective. They defend in a compact mid‑block, press selectively, and break forward with pace. Their wide players are in good form, and their ability to create high‑quality chances from transitions is one of the key reasons many analysts lean toward Celta in La Liga bets for this matchup.

Statistical Indicators

Sevilla xG (recent average): low and declining
Celta xG (recent average): significantly higher
Sevilla goals scored in last 3: minimal
Celta goals scored in last 3: strong output
Head‑to‑head trends: high BTTS percentage, frequent over‑2.5 matches

These numbers support the idea that Celta are currently the more dangerous attacking side, while Sevilla’s defensive instability increases the likelihood of conceding.

🔍 Sevilla vs Celta – Full Data‑Driven Analysis (12 Jan 2026)

📉 1. Current Form & Momentum

Sevilla

Last 5 matches: L–L–L–W–D
Goals scored in last 3: 0
League position: 12th (20 pts)
Trend: Struggling badly in attack; confidence low.

Celta Vigo

Last 5 matches: W–D–D–W–L
League position: 7th (26 pts)
Trend: Stronger form, scoring freely (4–1 vs Valencia last match).

🩺 2. Player Availability & Injury Impact

Sevilla – Major Absences

From FotMob injury list:

Marcao – suspended
Azpilicueta – thigh injury
Suazo – thigh injury
González – thigh injury
Nianzou – thigh injury
Vargas – muscle injury (doubtful)
Ejuke – AFCON
Akor Adams – AFCON

Impact:

Missing two starting full-backs (Azpilicueta, Suazo).
Missing main striker (Adams) and key winger (Ejuke).
Defensive depth heavily compromised.

Celta Vigo – Absences

From FotMob:

Starfelt – back injury
Domínguez – hamstring
Ristic – muscle injury

Impact:

Some defensive rotation needed, but core attack remains intact.

📊 3. Statistical Profile & xG Data

Expected Goals (xG)

From xGscore:

Sevilla xG: 1.19
Celta xG: 1.44
Predicted score: Sevilla 1.44 – 2.07 Celta

FootyStats xG & Form Index

Sevilla form index: 1.11
Celta form index: 1.88
Expected points (xPTS): Celta significantly higher.

Head‑to‑Head Trends

From FootyStats:

BTTS: 64%
Over 2.5 goals: 57%
Recent meeting: Celta won 3–2.

🧠 4. Tactical Breakdown

Sevilla

Manager: Matías Almeyda
Style: High‑energy pressing, but currently disjointed due to injuries.
Problems:
- No reliable striker (Adams absent).
- Full‑back injuries limit width and buildup.
- Conceding early and struggling to recover.

Celta Vigo

Manager: Claudio Giráldez
Style: Compact mid‑block + fast transitions.
Strengths:
- Efficient finishing (4 goals vs Valencia)
- Strong away form (15 pts from 8 away matches)
- Midfield control and verticality.

Betting Picks & Predictions

For bettors evaluating La Liga betting tips, the matchup offers several angles:

1. Match Result – Celta Draw No Bet

Given form, injuries, and tactical matchups, Celta have the edge. The draw‑no‑bet option adds protection while still offering value.

2. Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Historically strong in this fixture, and Sevilla tend to score at home even when struggling. Given that they have failed to score in their last three games, I’m betting my money on Sevilla scoring today. Celta are in better form, so they should get on the score sheet as well.