Today’s Champions League bet focuses on the most accurate Newcastle v Milan prediction. In this Group of Death, surprisingly, Borussia Dortmund leads the way with 10 points and has actually already qualified going into this final round. The second spot is up for grabs and all three remaining teams can snatch it depending on how results go. Plus, the third placed team go through to the Elimination phase of the Europa League, so there is plenty to play for. PSG are currently second with 7 points, while Newcastle and Milan both have 5, but the Italians have a negative goal difference of -4.
Group F Permutations – Doing the Math
A win for either side in this Newcastle v Milan prediction combined with a win for Borussia against PSG, would mean a qualification for the next round. In fact, Newcastle could also qualify by beating Milan combined with a draw between BVB and PSG, because of their superior head-to-head record versus the French (won the first and drew the second in Paris).
The boss. 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/Zqs5XabXzU— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) December 12, 2023
Bottom line is that Newcastle certainly need to win this game. We’ve often stressed that the motivation factor is key in the world of sports betting, and you can find more about that stuff in our recently released eBook – MASTERING THE ART OF SPORTS BETTING. On the flip side, it would take a bit of a miracle for the Rossoneri to make it to the next round of the Champions League. They need to win this game, and hope that BVB beats PSG.
In light of this Champions League bet for today and Newcastle v Milan prediction, we have two teams going head to head that would both be despearate for the win. This should set us up for an open game and hopefully, we will see some goals in it. The first fixture ended in a goalless draw at the San Siro, but Milan were the better side and had the more chances. Yet, some huge misses by Giroud and Leao cost the Rossoneri the win, and now they have loads of ground to make up for.
Going Into This Game
Besides the motivation, another key factor for Champions League betting tips is team’s form going into the match. Both Newcastle and Milan have underperformed in recent weaks. Newcastle have lost their last two games by a three-goal difference. First, they were trashed by relegation scrappers Everton by 3:0. Then, when everyone thought they would respond, Eddie Howe’s men put on another no-show and lost to Tottenham by 4:1. Two straight, big defeats is definitely a major red flag for the Magpies.
The picture has not been much brighter for the Italians. Looking at the last five matches, Milan have won only two. On November 11, they blew a 0:2 lead against Lecce and drew the game. Then they beat Fiorentina, but had a lot of luck in that game as La Viola should have at least equalized and missed a lot of clear cut chances. Three days later, Borrussia came to town and gave them a 1:3 wooping. A logical win against Frosineno followed but it was not without conceding – 3:1 at home. And last Saturday, Milan fans suffered a really heartbreaking defeat by 3:2 as Luis Muriel scored a backheel in the 95th minute.
Newcastle By the Numbers
Despite experiencing some shaky moments in recent matches, Newcastle remains solid. They’ve amassed six clean sheets in the ongoing 23/24 Premier League season, tying for first place with Arsenal. Moreover, they’ve conceded just 54 goals since the commencement of the previous season, ranking second in the league, behind only Manchester City (51). This resilience is best exemplified in this year’s Champions League, where Newcastle boasts the fewest goals conceded relative to their Expected Goals (xGA). With an xGA of 10.64, they’ve only conceded five goals, resulting in a remarkable difference of -5.64, the highest in the tournament.
Within their squad of youthful talent, the standout figure is undoubtedly the seasoned fullback, Kieran Trippier. As captain, he serves as both a crucial on-field asset and a unifying force within the team, leading the Premier League in assists (seven, tied with Pedro Neto and Mohammed Salah) and ranking second only to Bruno Fernandes (47) in chances created this season (45). Trippier also leads the league in touches, boasting a tally of 1604.
However, manager Eddie Howe faces a significant absence in goalkeeper Nick Pope, sidelined due to a long-term injury. Pope’s contribution to Newcastle’s robust defense has been noteworthy. Despite conceding five goals from an xG of 9.9 in the Champions League, he leads in preventing xG (4.9), showcasing his crucial role. Additionally, he ranks second in save percentage (83%) among goalkeepers with at least two appearances, trailing only Yann Sommer (89%). Remarkably, Pope is third in the number of saves made (25) in the tournament, following only Glazer and Racioppi (31).
Team News And Expected Lineups
Newcastle v Milan Prediction
Given that both teams will be desperate for the win here, we do expect an open game with goals at either end.
Both Teams to Score And Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80
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