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Italian Super Cup Betting Guide: Napoli v Fiorentina Prediction

A new chapter for the Italian Super Cup begins tonight with a new format, new name, and a new location. A lot of that “new” stuff is of course influenced by the desire to make more money, and you know where the money is in football these days – Saudi Arabia. The city of Riyadh will host the tournament, which used to be a single game between the Seria A winner and Coppa Italia winner from the previous season. Now, it’s a four-team tournament with two semifinals – the one between Napoli and Fiorentina, and another one between Inter and Lazio, which we will be played tomorrow, and we will also provide a complete betting guide with tips and predictions later on. The Italian federation have also sold the naming rights for the Super Coppa as it’s now called “EA Sports FC Supercup”.

Napoli Viewed As Surprising Favorites

Let’s dig into the betting insights surrounding this Italian Supercup prediction. In terms of the winners market, surprisingly, Napoli are viewed as favorites with odds at about 2.50, while Fiorentina are the underdogs and a win for them would pay off at the odds of 2.90-3.00. I’m saying that this is a bit of a surprise because Napoli have been in terrible form lately. In fact, they have been terrible all season, and that was another shock due to the fact that they came into this season as a defending champion, and their squad is pretty much intact.

Luciano Spalletti Still Being Missed

Of course, the big and perhaps key miss for them is former head coach Luciano Spalletti, and it would appear that he was the one that made all the difference. He decided to step away citing personal reasons, but there was also some tension between him and Napoli’s eccentric club owner Aurelio De Laurentiis. Spanish head coach Rudi Garcia came on as a replacement, but he could not get the job done. Oddly enough, he was fired right after the last meeting between these two teams as Napoli lost to Fiorentina, a home, by 1:3 back in October 2023, and that was the tipping point for De Laurentiis.

Walter Mazzarri stepped in to “replace the replacement”, but he too has failed to right the ship as Napoli have kept on to their inconsistent ways and have already stringed up 7 defeats in the Seria A till the halfway mark. They are currently 8th in the standings, and it’s turning to one of the worst campaigns a defending champion has ever made.

Napoli With The Worst Campaign By A Defending Champion

Perhaps a lone bright spark has been their last game, which was a 2:1 win against Salernitana. This win came after Napoli suffered for four straight matches in which they did not even score a single goal. In that rough stretch, Napoli were trashed out of the Coppa Italia by 0:4 at home against Frosinone, got smacked 2:0 by Roma and 3:0 by Torino. The only point came in a goalless draw against Monza.

Victor Osimhen Miss Out With Afcon Duties

To make matters worse, Napoli’s best player Victor Osimhen will miss the EA Sports FC Supercup tournament as he is playing for Nigeria in the Afcon. Mazzarri will have to rely on a false-nine up front playing Raspadori supported by Kvara and Politano. That’s not a bad forward trio, but it’s not physically imposing by any means. Plus, Kvara has been a shadow of his MVP-season last year.

Fiorentina Looking For A Trophy

Fiorentina have been on the rise in the last couple of years. In fact, ever since Commisso bought the club in 2019, although the start was quite turbulent and there were fan protests initially.

La Viola reached two cup finals last year. They went all the way to the Europa Conference League final against West Ham, and even took the lead but eventually lost the game. And they also reached the Italian Coppa Final, but had to come up against a strong Inter side and lost that one too.

These two finals defeats have not crushed their confidence and Fiorentina have remained on that upwards trajectory. This season, they are fighting for a Champions League spot as they are currently 4th in the Seria A standings. If they manage to achieve that, this would be a major success for the club.

Their second goal should be this Supercup trophy, because it would put an end to their trophy drought, and it would be something of a pay back after losing two finals last year.

Napoli v Fiorentina Prediction

That’s why my Napoli v Fiorentina prediction is for La Viola to go through. As you probably know, this is a semi-final, so a draw means extra time, and then it might to down to penalties. I’m not sure how they will do it, whether they would win in Regular Time or in Extra Time, but my money is on Fiorentina in this one.

Fiorentina to Quality @ 1.95

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